Will a new loan cover your CMBS balance?

Worked example

A multifamily loan with $18,000,000 due at maturity pays 4.63% today, about $70,415 a month interest only. The property earns $1,400,000 and is worth $24,000,000. At the recent multifamily median rate of 6.45% and median sizing (1.33x DSCR, 67.3% LTV, 8.75% debt yield):

Test	New loan limit
Debt service coverage	$16,096,310
Loan to value	$16,152,000
Debt yield (binds)	$16,000,000
Balance due	$18,000,000
Gap to fill	$2,000,000

To refinance the full balance without new money, NOI would need to reach about $1,575,000, or the lender would need looser limits. That is the conversation to have a year before maturity, not in the open period.

Formulas

New loan = min( NOI ÷ (DSCR × debt constant), value × LTV, NOI ÷ debt yield ) Gap = balance due − new loan (negative: room for cash out, before costs) NOI needed = max( balance × debt constant × DSCR, balance × debt yield ) Value needed = balance ÷ LTV Break-even rate (interest only, Actual/360) = NOI ÷ (DSCR × balance) × 360 ÷ 365

The loans maturing next

Maturing	Loans	Balance	Median note rate	NOI under 9% of balance (latest)
2026	229	$5.4 billion	4.54%	16.7%
2027	1,420	$32.3 billion	4.63%	17.1%
2028	1,720	$41.1 billion	5.06%	18.9%
2029	2,685	$65.9 billion	4.75%	21.6%

Loans still reporting in CMBS trusts as of October 28, 2026, by effective maturity. The last column is the share of tested loans whose latest reported NOI is under 9% of today's balance, a rough sign the loan needs new equity or a different lender. Full detail: the CMBS maturity wall.

Sources

1. SEC EDGAR Form ABS-EE asset-level data (Schedule AL) for CMBS trusts, as compiled by cmbs.news. Sizing medians by property type (Oct 2025 to Oct 2026), recent note rates, and the maturity schedule of loans still in trusts (2026-10-28).
2. BANK5 2025-5YR14 Pooling and Servicing Agreement, dated as of April 1, 2025 (Form 8-K, Exhibit 4.1, filed 2025-04-02). Section 1.01, "Servicing Transfer Event": the 120-day window after maturity for a borrower with a signed refinancing commitment.
3. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Treasury yields for the Treasury + spread option.

Related: refinancing a CMBS loan, cash-out refinance, CMBS loan calculator, defeasance calculator.

Questions people ask

What is a CMBS maturity gap?

The difference between the balance due at maturity and the largest new loan the property can support today. Higher rates shrink the new loan on the debt service coverage test, and a lower value or weaker income shrinks it on the other two. The gap has to be filled with cash or other capital before the old loan can be paid off.

How do I close a refinance gap?

The usual sources are new equity from the owners, a mezzanine loan or preferred equity layered behind the new first mortgage, a lender with looser sizing (a bank, life company, debt fund or bridge lender), or a paydown negotiated with the special servicer as part of an extension. Each has a different cost and a different claim on the property.

When should I start refinancing a CMBS loan?

Well before the open period. A new loan takes weeks to months to underwrite and close, and a loan that misses its balloon goes to the special servicer. In BANK5 2025-5YR14 a borrower with a signed refinancing commitment can keep the loan with the master servicer for up to 120 days past maturity.

How many CMBS loans mature in 2027 and 2028?

Of the loans still reporting in CMBS trusts as of October 28, 2026, 1,420 loans with $32.3 billion of balance mature in 2027 and 1,720 with $41.1 billion in 2028. Their median note rates are 4.63% and 5.06%.