The CMBS maturity wall
By Brad Beattie, Director, Capital Markets, Janover Capital LLC · Published
1,420 CMBS loans with $32.3 billion outstanding mature in 2027, and 1,720 with $41.1 billion in 2028 (SEC Form ABS-EE filings, as of October 28, 2026). The 2027 loans carry a median coupon of 4.63%, against 6.63% on CMBS loans originated in the last 90 days.
- Maturing in 2027
- $32.3B
- 1,420 loans
- Maturing in 2028
- $41.1B
- 1,720 loans
- Median coupon, 2027 maturities
- 4.63%
- recent loans 6.63%
- Past maturity, still outstanding
- $3.3B
- 79 loans
CMBS loans maturing by year
12,062 loans with $280.4 billion outstanding were still in CMBS trusts as of October 28, 2026. The largest year is 2029, with $65.9 billion. The 2026 column counts loans already past maturity this year plus those still to come (186 loans, $4.0 billion, mature between now and December 31).
| Year | Balance | Loans |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5.4B | 229 |
| 2027 | $32.3B | 1,420 |
| 2028 | $41.1B | 1,720 |
| 2029 | $65.9B | 2,685 |
| 2030 | $42.6B | 1,736 |
| 2031 | $42.3B | 2,044 |
| 2032 | $18.6B | 890 |
| Maturity year | Loans | Balance | Median coupon | Gap to recent rate | Shortfall share (NOI at securitization) | Shortfall share (latest NOI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 229 | $5.4B | 4.54% | +209 bp | 7% of 195 | 17% of 180 |
| 2027 | 1,420 | $32.3B | 4.63% | +200 bp | 9% of 1,321 | 17% of 1,179 |
| 2028 | 1,720 | $41.1B | 5.06% | +157 bp | 12% of 1,462 | 19% of 1,366 |
| 2029 | 2,685 | $65.9B | 4.75% | +188 bp | 18% of 2,392 | 22% of 2,083 |
| 2030 | 1,736 | $42.6B | 5.63% | +100 bp | 24% of 1,597 | 23% of 1,137 |
| 2031 | 2,044 | $42.3B | 3.90% | +273 bp | 30% of 1,666 | 25% of 1,138 |
| 2032 | 890 | $18.6B | 4.70% | +193 bp | 18% of 731 | 22% of 603 |
Effective maturity: the extended date after a modification, or the anticipated repayment date when earlier. Recent rate: median note rate on loans originated July 21 to October 19, 2026. Year links open the loan-level list on cmbs.news.
The rate gap: what refinancing costs now
Loans maturing in 2027 were written at a median coupon of 4.63%. Refinancing the same balance at 6.63%, the median rate on CMBS loans from the last 90 days, raises the interest bill by about 43%. On a $10 million interest-only loan, that is $463,000 a year at the old coupon against $663,000 at today's median. Lenders size the new loan to the property's cash flow at the new rate, so many owners face a smaller loan than the one they are paying off.
Run your own numbers in the CMBS refinance calculator: it shows the loan your NOI supports at today's rates and the gap to your balance.
The shortfall share, and how far to trust it
The shortfall share is the percentage of maturing loans whose net operating income is under 9% of today's loan balance, a debt yield of 9%. We chose 9% because 72% of whole CMBS loans written in the last 12 months had a debt yield of 9% or more (the 25th percentile was 8.8%), so a loan below 9% sits near the bottom quarter of what lenders are writing today. A loan under that line probably cannot be refinanced for its full balance without new equity, a lower-leverage lender, or a different structure.
Treat it as a rough gauge. Its limits:
- Old income. The main measure uses NOI at securitization, which for a loan maturing in 2027 may be five or ten years old. The second column uses the most recent NOI the servicer reported, which covers fewer loans.
- Whole balances only. A loan split across trusts is tested only when every piece is tracked; otherwise its balance would be understated.
- One measure. Lenders also test coverage and value. A loan can pass on debt yield and still fall short on leverage, or the reverse.
- Not a forecast. Owners add equity, sell, extend or refinance with other lenders. The share says where pressure sits, not which loans will default.
Loans past their maturity date and still outstanding: 79 with $3.3 billion; 46 were reported as non-performing matured balloons and 10 as performing matured balloons.
Maturities by property type
| Property type | 2027 loans | 2027 balance | 2028 loans | 2028 balance | 2029 balance | 2027 shortfall share | 2027 median coupon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multifamily | 101 | $1.9B | 175 | $3.3B | $10.9B | 23% | 4.65% |
| Retail | 450 | $7.3B | 485 | $11.3B | $13.3B | 10% | 4.69% |
| Office | 270 | $12.5B | 338 | $13.0B | $17.2B | 9% | 4.48% |
| Hotel | 196 | $4.1B | 233 | $5.0B | $7.7B | 0% | 4.95% |
| Self-storage | 111 | $1.1B | 122 | $1.4B | $2.2B | 4% | 4.55% |
| Industrial | 68 | $1.1B | 114 | $2.7B | $3.9B | 3% | 4.57% |
| Mixed use | 101 | $3.7B | 110 | $2.4B | $7.2B | 27% | 4.63% |
| Mobile home park | 21 | $88.6M | 34 | $261M | $1.1B | 0% | 4.87% |
| Co-op housing | 79 | $227M | 60 | $226M | $475M | not tested | 3.85% |
Co-op housing is not tested: its income and values are not comparable to commercial property.
Maturities by state
The 15 states with the most CMBS debt maturing in 2027 and 2028 combined. States with at least 100 live loans have their own page.
| State | 2027 loans | 2027 balance | 2028 loans | 2028 balance | 2027 shortfall share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 267 | $6.5B | 259 | $6.9B | 10% |
| New York | 189 | $7.3B | 225 | $5.7B | 30% |
| Texas | 125 | $1.9B | 137 | $2.4B | 5% |
| Florida | 85 | $943M | 104 | $3.0B | 5% |
| New Jersey | 38 | $1.4B | 50 | $1.4B | 6% |
| Pennsylvania | 46 | $1.0B | 47 | $1.6B | 2% |
| Virginia | 22 | $566M | 48 | $1.9B | 0% |
| Michigan | 61 | $857M | 60 | $1.1B | 2% |
| Washington | 21 | $961M | 37 | $1.0B | 17% |
| Ohio | 46 | $1.0B | 57 | $848M | 0% |
| Arizona | 32 | $297M | 60 | $1.4B | 3% |
| Illinois | 37 | $797M | 61 | $909M | 12% |
| Massachusetts | 15 | $612M | 14 | $962M | 23% |
| Georgia | 41 | $376M | 75 | $1.1B | 3% |
| Nevada | 30 | $512M | 36 | $890M | 7% |
State of the largest property; portfolio loans across several states count once, in the state of their largest property. Full state table: CMBS data downloads.
If your CMBS loan matures in the next two years
24 months out
- Read the prepayment section of the loan agreement: when the loan opens to payoff without a penalty, and whether it is defeasance or yield maintenance until then. See CMBS prepayment penalties.
- Size the refinance at today's rates with the refinance calculator, using the NOI you actually collect.
- If the numbers do not cover the balance, start on the gap now: new equity, a partner, or a different loan type. See CMBS refinance.
12 months out
- Put together the package lenders ask for: rent roll, trailing operating statements, capital spending, insurance and organizational documents. See the CMBS loan checklist.
- Go to market. Compare conduit, bank, life company, agency and bridge quotes on the same terms: proceeds, rate, prepayment and recourse.
- Watch for cash management triggers that can start sweeping cash as maturity nears; see CMBS cash management.
6 months out
- Have a signed term sheet and a closing timeline that lands inside the open period.
- If the refinance will not close in time, talk to the master servicer about an extension before the maturity date, not after. See CMBS loan extensions and when your CMBS loan is maturing.
- A missed balloon payment can send the loan to the special servicer; know the rules in missed CMBS maturity.
Source: SEC Form ABS-EE asset-level filings (Schedule AL) for CMBS trusts, compiled by cmbs.news; data as of October 28, 2026. Pari passu pieces of one loan are counted once. Balances are the latest reported balance of each loan's pieces in CMBS trusts. How each figure is built: methodology. Download the tables: CMBS data (CSV).
Loan-level maturity lists, by year and month: cmbs.news maturity wall.
Questions people ask
How many CMBS loans mature in 2027?
1,420 loans with $32.3 billion outstanding, counting loans still reporting in CMBS trusts as of October 28, 2026 by effective maturity date. A loan split across trusts counts once.
What is the CMBS maturity wall?
The stack of securitized loans coming due over the next few years, many written at coupons well below today's rates. The 2027 loans have a median coupon of 4.63%, so refinancing at a recent median of 6.63% raises interest cost by about 43% for the same loan amount.
What share of maturing CMBS loans may not refinance?
Of 2027 maturities that could be tested, 9% had net operating income at securitization under 9% of today's balance, and 17% on the most recent NOI reported. That is a rough proxy for loans that need new equity or a different lender, not a forecast of defaults.
What should I do if my CMBS loan matures soon?
Start 24 months out: read the prepayment terms, order a current valuation view, and size the refinance against today's rates. Twelve months out, go to market. Six months out you should have a term sheet. If a refinance will not cover the balance, talk to the servicer before the maturity date.
Maturing in the next two years?
Send the loan and the property numbers. Janover Capital LLC will size the refinance and ask lenders to price it.